Pacquiao to Congress? Mayweather vs. the Other Hatton?

There seemed to be indications last week that the much anticipated Pacquiao/Mayweather super fight might be made without nearly as much sturm and drang as feared.

Not anymore. First we had reports of Pacquiao's trainer, Freddie Roach, expressing his doubts that the fight would happen next:

"Mayweather doesn't want to fight in March, so we might fight for the 154 pound title in March (against Yure Foreman) and move up for that eighth world title... And then Mayweather in September. If they guarantee that, then we'll do that, but we need more of a commitment from Mayweather because he's not negotiating too well."

Bernard Hopkins, a promoter for Golden Boy, which is handling Mayweather's negotiations, also indicated he thinks a Pacquiao/Foreman fight and a Mayweather/Mosley fight might happen before the big one arrives.

There is also the problem of a potential Pacquiao political campaign. Manny has long wanted to serve his country's government, in fact he lost a campaign several years ago. Now there are indications he might be taking it more seriously than ever. Pacquiao's promoter, Bob Arum, has been told by Pacquiao that he intends to run for congress in the Philippines.

The election could push any chance of the fight back to the end of the year, or force Pacquiao to take a smaller fight, such as Yuri Foreman, in March, before the political contest.

Is all of this just gamesmanship? I think that's the most likely answer. Arum has thrown out the name Mathew Hatton, Ricky Hatton's journeyman brother, as a potential Floyd Mayweather opponent. Such a fight, against the weaker Hatton sibling, would send fans into fits of rage, and it's likely just meant to pressure Mayweather.

Bernard Hopkins' recommendation of a fight between Shane Mosley and Floyd Mayweather can be seen as a continuation of his long agitation on behalf of his friend, Shane Mosley.

Roach's comment about a potential fight between Pacquiao and newly crowned junior middleweight champion Yuri Foreman is likely an attempt to leverage Mayweather into certain concessions.

While many people fear Mayweather will find a way out of the fight, I've always disagreed. It's easy to predict what Floyd Mayweather will do; just follow the money. You may disapprove of his choices and lifestyle, but he is very consistent. He fights for the biggest check, and he can get that check from Pacquiao.

The one scenario I had not really anticipated was Pacquiao's political ambitions. While no one can accuse Pacquiao of fearing any fight, he simply doesn't seem to have the same fixed and outwardly rational value system Floyd Mayweather does. Pacquiao truly seems like he would give up a guaranteed forty million dollar payday for the chance to run for congress. He's just that type of guy. There is no telling what he might do.

I still think the fight will happen. The forces at work, especially the powers at HBO, have too much at stake for it not to.

But it won't be easy.