Monday, January 4, 2010

Why Pacquiao-Mayweather is still odds-on to take place this spring

Any bookmaker framing odds on the chances of Manny Pacquiao fighting Floyd Mayweather Jr at the MGM Grand, Las Vegas, this spring or summer might have it at close to even money this morning.

The reasons are these: Floyd, one of life's great gamblers, has already pushed Manny too far in their drawn-out blood feud, and he needs the money more than the little guy. I think the Mayweathers are cracking.

Six weeks ago, when negotiations for the 13 March fight started, Leonard Ellerbe, Mayweather's closest business adviser, said: "If the fight happens, Floyd deserves the lion's share of the purse."

This is a standard negotiating posture, one that led Bob Arum, representing Pacquiao, to point out to him that only the egos of the negotiators could scupper the promotion.

To everyone's amazement, within days Mayweather agreed to split the $50m purse down the middle and cut a deal on the pay-per-view take. That was when I figured he was more desperate for the fight than Pacquiao was – and when they decided on the next stage of their negotiating strategy.

Just before Christmas they tried to rattle Pacquiao by demanding he take random blood tests for performance-enhancing drugs, knowing he didn't like giving blood, especially in the last month of training. He did it before, against Erik Morales (promoted at the time by Oscar De La Hoya), and lost. They were also putting in place what they thought was the perfect excuse: if Pacquiao refused the blood tests and won the fight, Mayweather could claim again he was on the juice.

But Pacquiao fashioned an even better counter. When he announced last week he was suing Mayweather, his father and uncle, as well as their business associates Richard Schaefer and De La Hoya, for defamation, claiming they portrayed him as a drug cheat, he challenged them to back down.

They have not yet done that, but they are nervous.

Ellerbe, who doesn't give many interviews, told Fanhouse.com yesterday, "From day one, I've never accused Manny Pacquaio of anything. All that I've said is that we want to ensure that there is a level playing field."

This, clearly, is unsustainable nonsense. If he is not accusing Pacquiao of anything, why ask him to take tests they have never demanded of any of Mayweather's previous 40 opponents? There is no logic in the Mayweathers' position – unless they believe Pacquiao is taking performance-enhancing drugs.

If they have proof of that beyond gym scuttlebutt, you would imagine they'd produce it. Or would they? Because, to do so would not only wreck Pacquiao's career but a pay-day north of $40m for Mayweather, as well as big bunce for his partners.

Pacquiao, if he is innocent, will know they have no evidence and so will have to compromise. If he is guilty, he will be reasonably certain they won't wreck the promotion by providing the proof. He also knows Mayweather, who called him out in the first place, really wants the fight. He has some serious tax bills to pay, and loves a bet. The signs are encouraging.

Ellerbe said yesterday, "We're still ready, willing and able to make a deal. We feel that this is the biggest fight in the history of boxing. We want to give this fight to the fans."

Of course they do.

And, not only do they want to make a pay-per-view killing, the biggest in the history of the sport by a factor of possibly two, they want to avoid punitive damages of "tens of millions" above the headline $75,000 Pacquiao is suing them for. Those big zeroes are the estimate of Pacquiao's celebrity attorney, Daniel Petrocelli, and any gambler would do well not to ignore him. He has form.

If Pacquiao extracts an apology from Mayweather and agrees to a suitable form of drug testing, all will be well. Otherwise, he will take the legal action the whole way. I have no idea if he will win in court – but neither does Mayweather, and I reckon his legal advisers will be telling him to think hard about bailing out of this one.

Given this is boxing, there has to be another twist – and the most mysterious of all is that Golden Boy owns a slice of Pacquiao, who signed with it in 2006. This inspired Top Rank to sue GBP, which counter-sued. They now each have a bit of Manny, a curiosity that has yet to be resolved.

It is not just a boxing match between Pacquiao and Mayweather, the two best practitioners in the world; it is a willy-waving contest between a whole cast of players: Arum and De La Hoya, for a start. The Golden Boy boxed for Arum – until they fell out, naturally. Nor does Pacquiao's trainer, Freddie Roach, get on with Mayweather Sr. In fact Mayweather Jr is not crazy about De La Hoya, who lost to him in 2007 but out-earned him by $58m to $25m. Oscar then sacked his trainer – Freddie Roach. The Borgias have got nothing on this lot.

Ellerbe told Fanhouse.com, "We checked our egos at the door" when they started talks. I don't think so. The fight game is all about egos. It's why they are in this mess in the first place.

There is an outside chance, of course, that this absurd row is a publicity scam of towering genius, one that ensures maximum interest from outside the hardcore boxing community, punters who will push the pay-per-view numbers past three million and make everyone concerned considerably richer.

It might not have begun like that. But, as in life, what started as a cock-up born of animus has become a war, and it plainly suits both sides to milk it until they settle. It is getting a lot of ink.

So if the fighters, alongside Arum, Ellerbe, Schaefer and De La Hoya, gather this week – let's say Wednesday – to announce the war is over, it would not surprise me in the least. I'd put the odds at about 4‑6.

Mayweather/Pacquiao: Takes one for the money, but two for the show

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Insider Scully Weighs In On Pacquiao-Mayweather

John Scully has been involved in the sport of boxing since his teenage years and knows the business inside and out. Scully, a resident of Windsor, Connectitcut, has boxed for a world title, trained world champions, analyzed matches for ESPN Classic TV network, made friendships with the likes of Roy Jones and James Toney, and was inducted into the Connecticut Boxing Hall of Fame last year.

Regarding the Manny Pacquaio-Floyd Mayweather issue, Scully has been observing developments intently, like the rest of us. And he has a unique take on what is transpiring. “I think to some degree it is intentionally being hyped up to draw even bigger interest in the fight,” says Scully. “They are saturating the media with the controversy so that it can reach more mainstream fans. I think that it also shows what effect Pacquiao’s performances have had on Mayweather. Maybe it backfires on Floyd though. Meaning, maybe if Pacquiao passes all tests with flying colors, Mayweather will hesitate, at the thought of, ‘Wow, so this little dude really is doing all this damage naturally?!’”

Scully interprets Mayweather’s actions as actually being indirectly complimentary to Pacquiao. “It definitely shows a certain amount of respect from Mayweather for Pacquiao that he otherwise verbally won’t show. If I was to guess, strictly a guess, I would say Pacquiao is clean,” Scully said. “Either way though, Pacquiao may not have to do more than is required – for good reason, being that Mayweather has no right or jusridiction to call for such testing to be done.”

He offers an interesting analogy. “What if Pacquiao came out and says to the world, ‘I heard Mayweather has AIDS and I am fearful. I want him to be tested twice more by a very intense and more invasive testing than they do with the commission. I want to be extra sure he doesn’t have tainted blood that could harm me.’ Would Mayweather honestly be expected to honor such accusations by going through with a non-mandated test?”

“I’m like most boxing fans when I say I wish Mayweather would just go ahead and accept the fight. It’s going to happen sooner or later, obviously. The interest is there, the money is there, the mission is already accomplished. Let’s get it on.”

I would have to say that, realistically, giving enough blood to take one of those tests…on a scale of 1 to 10 in terms of how badly it would affect you, with 100 being the worst…I dont know, honestly… but to guess, I think legitimiately the number would be VERY LOW, not even above 10…now the MENTAL aspect could be another story…its like this…and u can find 10 fighters who will go one way and 10 who will go another but…take Red Bull for example…I know guys who say it makes them a monster and I know other guys who say it has absoluely no effect on them whatsoever…

Do we want to see Pacquiao vs Yuri Foreman?

Do we really want to see a match between Manny Pacquiao and Yuri Foreman? How many more matches will the fans have crammed down their throats that they do not want to see? How is it that boxing always seems to figure out different ways to drive more fans away from the sport?

Between crooked judges, mismatches, hyped up paper champions, and politics, the sport doesn't need another match that will put fans to sleep. The very notion that Manny Pacquiao's next fight might be against the WBA Jr middleweight champion Yuri Foreman is just dreadful. If this fight comes to fruition, I just hope that they have the ambulance started up, and a police escort ready to bring it, and Foreman to the nearest hospital.

With the victory would come an 8th world title in as many divisions for Manny Pacquiao. All well and good for his resume, but not a fight that people would be excited to pay $ 50.00 dollars to see. Who besides hardcore boxing fans even know who Yuri Foreman is? Foreman has a great story to tell, but nobody really knows who the man is.

Malignaggi vs Pacquiao wouldn't be great, but it would be better than Foreman vs Pacquiao. At least the pre fight show would be somewhat entertaining. I just can't see a Pacquiao vs Foreman HBO 24/7 that would excite any fan. Malignaggi talks a lot of smack, and he has a much bigger name than Yuri Foreman has, so that fight would sell better.

Nothing against Yuri Foreman, and a fight against Pacquiao would surely be his biggest payday but with that said, do we really want to see it? It's really a shame that Edwin Valero has a February 26th date already in place. A Pacquiao vs Valero fight would certainly make sense. Valero the undefeated knockout artist against Pacquiao the legend killer. Anything but Yuri Foreman vs Manny Pacquiao.

Judge to Mediate Mayweather-Pacquiao Impasse

Representatives of Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather will meet on Tuesday in retired federal judge Daniel Weinstein's Santa Monica office of Judicial Arbitration and Mediation Services (JAMS) in an attempt to revive talks for the fighters' potential March 13 megabout at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.

Bob Arum, CEO of Top Rank Promotions, said he will be present on behalf of Pacquiao, as will his stepson, Top Rank president Todd duBoef. Also, there will be a representative of the Los Angeles-based law firm O'Melveny and Myers, whose attorney Daniel Petrocelli has been retained to take the case.

Perhaps best known for gaining a conviction in a wrongful death civil suit against O.J. Simpson in 1997, Petrocelli last Wednesday filed a lawsuit on behalf of Pacquiao seeking compensatory and punitive damages for defamation of character against Richard Schaefer and Oscar De La Hoya of Golden Boy Promotions, as well as Floyd Mayweather Jr., Floyd Mayweather Sr., and the fighter's uncle, Roger Mayweather.

Contacted through his administrative assistant, Schaefer, via e-mail, declined to comment.

But Leonard Ellerbe, CEO of Mayweather Promotions, told FanHouse recently "we're still trying to make a deal. We feel that this is the biggest fight in the history of boxing. We want to give this fight to the fans."

The suit seeks damages in excess of $75,000 for Pacquiao (50-3-2, 38 knockouts), who contends that the camp of Mayweather (40-0, 25 KOs) has damaged his reputation by demanding that both fighters be randomly drug-tested using urinalysis as well as blood work -- the latter being a procedure that never has been used in boxing.

Mayweather's camp initially wanted the Olympic-style, random blood-testing to be done by the United States Anti-Doping Agency. It has since backed off of that stance.

Neither Pacquiao nor Mayweather has ever tested positive for any banned substances.

Pending Tuesday's mediation at JAMS, Petrocelli can no longer comment directly on the case. Petrocelli did, however, speak to FanHouse last Wednesday -- within an hour of filing the suit.

"We filed a defamation of character lawsuit in the federal court in Las Vegas, Nev., against the Mayweathers, Oscar De La Hoya and Richard Schaefer, based on their false and defamatory statements about Manny Pacquiao," said Petrocelli, "specifically their publicly stating that Pacquiao was taking steroids or other illegal drugs to enhance his performance -- knowing that there is absolutely no basis for any such assertions ... These guys have no right saying what they're saying. It's knowingly false, highly injurious."

The Los Angeles Times noted that Weinstein successfully stepped in when Top Rank and Golden Boy declined to promote fights together in the past, including his intervention that led to a truce that was a catalyst for the Pacquiao-Marco Antonio Barrera bout in 2007.

Arum said that the only way for the negotiations to continue is for Mayweather's side to drop its demand for random blood-testing and to apologize, publicly, to Pacquiao.

"What they have to do -- and what I know the option is going to be -- is that they have to apologize. All of them. They have to make a meaningful apology," said Arum.

"If they want random blood-testing, they would have to go before the Nevada Commission and petition the commission for that," said Arum. "They have to agree that the Nevada Commission is regulating this fight -- period. No outside agency, no nothing. The have to go with the Nevada Commission -- period."

A native and resident of General Santos City, Philippines, the 31-year-old Pacquiao's career began as a 106-pounder. The Filipino superstar's Nov. 14, 12th-round technical knockout of Miguel Cotto earned the WBO's welterweight title -- his unprecedented seventh in as many different weight classes.

Since losing a unanimous decision to Erik Morales in March 2005, Pacquiao's ring performances have been extraordinary, if not exceptional.

Pacquiao is riding an 11-0 winning streak that includes eight knockouts -- a run that includes KOs in the 10th and third rounds, respectively, in subsequent bouts with Morales that avenged the earlier loss.

Pacquiao's past six victories include super featherweight (130 pounds) decisions over Mexican greats Marco Antonio Barrera and Juan Manuel Marquez -- this after having battled Marquez to a draw nearly four years earlier.

Pacquiao has knocked out his past four opponents, David Diaz, Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, and Cotto, respectively, while rising from lightweight (135 pounds) to junior welterweight (140), and on to the welterweight classes.

Some members of the boxing community have speculated publicly about Pacquiao's ability to carry his uncanny power with him as he has risen in weight.

Arum believes the criticism to be unfair, asking, "When has this ever come up in the past like this?"

Following his Sept. 2003, junior middleweight victory over Oscar De La Hoya, Shane Mosley admitted to having used the doping agent EPO in connection with the BALCO steroids scandal.

"Shane Mosley was an admitted drug-user. And I've had Shane Mosley fight two of the guys that I've promoted in the last few years -- one of them was Miguel Cotto and the other was Antonio Margarito. Did I ever, ever, ever even indicate in any way that Shane Mosley should be subject to special testing? Ever? No," said Arum.

"The feeling in the Philippines, really, is that Manny's an Asian guy and this is really xenophobic. And because of his great success, this is what they're focusing on," said Arum. "So this is absolutely preposterous and hopefully the mediator will convince them of that."

If the Mayweather-Pacquiao bout does not take place, Arum has said that he is prepared to match Pacquiao against newly-crowned WBA junior middleweight (154 pounds) Yuri Foreman (28-0, eight KOs) of New York, possibly on March 20 at The Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Mayweather camp puts damper on Pacquiao optimism

Team Floyd Mayweather is not humming the same happy, optimistic tune that Manny Pacquiao promoter Bob Arum is.

Arum told me that he will show up in California next week for a sitdown session with the Mayweather interests and noted meditator and retired Federal Judge Daniel Weinstein.

I should make it clear that the only on the official agenda topic at that meeting will be the troubled contractual relationship arising out of a mediated settled in which Arum’s Top Rank and Golden Boy share a promotional interest in the Pinoy Idol. Golden Boy, of course, is Mayweather's appointed agent in terms of making a mega bout against Pacman.
“Things could be bubbling,” Arum told me before departed from his Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, vacation hotel Saturday to return to his home in Las Vegas.
I got the phrase “global settlement,”meaning a meeting of the minds on all issues between the opposing parties which could produce the Mayweather-Pacquiao Lollapalooza in either March or May.
“I won’t say that,” Arum said, shutting off his giddy optimist button and switching to his practiced pragmatist tone.
My Mayweather camp source said Arum is off base, way off base.

“The only issue before Judge Weinstein is the Top Rank-Golden Boy relationship as to Manny,” my informed source said.
“There will be no Mayweather-Pacquiao fight unless they agree to random blood and urine testing with a mutually agreeable prefight cutoff date. End of story.”
So we might we all might want to temper out Big Fight optimism until the key parties sit across from each other at the big conference table.
I still see the glass as half full but I am seeking treatment for my incurable optimism.
If you see with a ponderous pack of pessimists, you will know why.

Friday, January 1, 2010

PACQUIAO-MAYWEATHER: IT'S TIME TO MOVE ON

Now that the Pacquiao-Mayweather match-up seems to have gone up in a ball of fire (at least for the time being), Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather, Jr. will have to find new opponents for their next fight. From the way things are looking, Team Pacquiao will likely pursue a fight with either junior welterweight contender Paullie Malignaggi, or newly crowned WBA junior middleweight champion Yuri Foreman. Since Malignaggi recently defeated former lightweight king Juan Diaz, a Pacquiao-Malignaggi fight would be a fairly decent match-up. But in my opinion, the idea of a Pacquiao-Foreman fight has very little appeal.

Based on his appearances on HBO, Paullie Malignaggi has earned a reputation as a good, but not great fighter. He can beat someone like Lovemore N’Dou, but he was defeated pretty convincingly by Miguel Cotto. And against Ricky Hatton, Malignaggi was completely outgunned and stopped inside the distance (his corner through in the towel and the timing of the stoppage was a bit controversial). But since that time, Malignaggi has gained some momentum with his two fights with Juan Diaz. The first fight was a decision loss that most people felt he won and the second fight was a unanimous decision victory. So considering he just beat a former champion in Diaz, it seems that Malignaggi may be maturing as a professional. And while just about everyone would consider Pacquiao to be a huge favorite if they were to meet, Malignaggi is a legitimate top ten contender and it’s not an unreasonable match-up.

Manny Pacquiao-Yuri Foreman is on the table basically because Foreman is a world champion. And if Pacquiao took this fight and came out victorious (which he probably would), this would be his eighth world title in an eighth weight class. The possibility of Pacquiao becoming an eight-time champion would undoubtedly be the selling point of the fight. But in my opinion, the idea of Pacquiao winning a world title in an eighth weight class doesn’t make this a worthwhile match-up.

Without question, Team Pacquiao views Yuri Foreman as the perfect opponent. He’s undefeated and he just won a somewhat big fight against Daniel Santos on the undercard of Pacquiao-Cotto, so he’s a recognizable name to Pacquiao’s fans. But since Pacquiao’s last fight was fought at a catchweight of 145, it seems a bit odd that Team Pacquiao is all of a sudden ready to make the jump to 154 pounds.

Yuri Foreman is a good fighter, but he’s not a dangerous puncher by any means and he’s nowhere near the skill level of Pacquiao. I seriously doubt that Team Pacquiao would put their fighter in with Kermit Cintron, Alfredo Angulo, or any junior middleweight who possesses one-punch knockout power. People often criticize Floyd Maywether, Jr. for cherry picking his opponents. But if Team Pacquiao ends up taking this fight with Yuri Foreman, it would be one of the worst cases of cherry picking I’ve seen in recent years.

I have all the respect in the world for Manny Pacquiao and he certainly deserves to be referred to as the pound-for-pound king. But since he is no longer fighting Floyd Mayweather, Jr. as it was reported by Boxingtalk publisher Greg Leon, I would prefer to see him face Paullie Malignaggi, Timothy Bradley, Devon Alexander, or any of the other top junior welterweights. And if Team Pacquiao wants their fighter to take a tune-up, he’s certainly entitled given his recent track record against top opposition. But I am not in favor of the networks pushing Pacquiao-Foreman as a historically significant event just because Pacquiao stands a good chance of winning a world title in yet another weight class. In my opinion, this fight would have little substance.

As for Floyd Mayweather, Jr., the only fight that makes sense for him at the moment is the winner of Shane Mosley-Andre Berto. Rumors have circulated in recent times that Mayweather has contemplated taking a fight with Matthew Hatton, the younger brother of Ricky Hatton. Matthew Hatton has a record of 37-4-2 and the toughest opponent he’s faced thus far is Lovemore N’Dou, a fight that resulted in a draw. A fight between Floyd Mayweather, Jr. and Matthew Hatton isn’t even competitive enough to call cherry picking. This match-up makes Kelly Pavlik-Gary Lockett look like a mega fight. I have never been among those who accuse Mayweather of only facing soft opposition, but if he were to take the fight with Matthew Hatton, I would have no choice but to join the club.

It’s a shame that it looks as if Pacquiao-Mayweather won’t be happening in the near future. The buildup would have been very exciting, but all of the talk surrounding this proposed mega fight has grown stale. Pacquiao-Mayweather was and could still be the biggest fight around, but it’s neither the beginning nor the end of the boxing world. And if the two parties can’t reach a mutual agreement because of this ridiculous steroid issue, boxing fans still have other exciting match-ups to look forward to in 2010.